When the Arizona Cardinals host the Jacksonville Jaguars at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, November 23, 2025, it won’t just be a game—it’ll be a survival test for one team and a playoff lifeline for the other. With injuries decimating both rosters and betting lines shifting like desert sand, experts aren’t just picking winners. They’re betting on chaos. And the props? They’re wilder than ever.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Record Shows
The Cardinals sit at 4-6, clinging to playoff math like a last-second field goal. A loss here all but ends their season. The Jaguars? At 6-4, they’re hovering just outside the AFC playoff picture. A win pushes them into the conversation. That’s not just narrative—it’s pressure. And pressure changes how players move, how coaches call plays, how bettors think. According to Action Network and Covers.com, the Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites, with odds hovering around -104 to -105. The over/under? A split between 46.5 and 47.5 points. But the real story isn’t in the point spread. It’s in who’s hurt—and who’s left standing.The Injury Domino Effect: Harrison Jr. and Thomas Jr. Out
The Cardinals lost Marvin Harrison Jr., their most dynamic receiver, to injury. That’s not just a loss—it’s a seismic shift. Suddenly, Trey McBride, the tight end, becomes the primary target. He’s caught a touchdown in five straight games. And with quarterback Jacoby Brissett relying on him like a safety net, McBride’s role has exploded. Meanwhile, the Jaguars lost Brian Thomas Jr., their explosive rookie wideout. That opens the door for Jakobi Meyers, the veteran acquired midseason from the Raiders. In his first game with Jacksonville, Meyers caught all three of his targets. In his second? Five receptions, 41 yards. Now, with Thomas out, Meyers is the clear No. 1. And the Cardinals? They’ve allowed 12.0 receptions per game to opposing wideouts—tenth-most in the NFL.The Five Must-Bet Props: Expert Picks Breakdown
Betting analysts from Sportsbook Review and Action Network have zeroed in on five props that aren’t just smart—they’re almost inevitable.- Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 Receptions (-130) — With Thomas out and Lawrence needing a reliable outlet, Meyers is the safety valve. BetMGM’s odds make this a 56.5% implied probability. A $10 bet nets $7.69 if he hits five catches. He’s already done it twice since joining Jacksonville.
- Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+105) — He’s scored in five straight. Brissett targets him on third-and-medium, in the red zone, even on goal-line stands. His line used to be +200. Now it’s +105. That’s a signal.
- Trey McBride Over 75.5 Receiving Yards — With Harrison Jr. gone, McBride is seeing 8-10 targets per game. He’s hit 76+ yards in three of his last five. The Cardinals’ defense? They’re weak against TEs—especially when the QB is under pressure.
- Travis Etienne Over 46.5 Rushing Yards — The Jaguars’ offense runs through him. Even with injuries along the line, Etienne averaged 58 yards per game over the last three. The Cardinals have allowed 181 rushing yards in one game and 126 in another. He’s not just a runner—he’s their only consistent weapon.
- Trevor Lawrence UNDER 215.5 Passing Yards — This is the contrarian play. Lawrence has been erratic, especially when pressured. He’s thrown for over 220 yards just twice this season. With Harrison Jr. out and Meyers needing time to get open, expect short, quick passes. And the Cardinals? They’ve allowed just six runs of 20+ yards this season. They’ll dare Lawrence to beat them deep—and he might not.
The Contrarian Edge: Why Cardinals +3 Might Be the Best Bet
Here’s the twist: Action Network’s own analysts are leaning Cardinals +3 (-110). Why? Because Jacksonville is banged up too. Their offensive line is shaky. Tuten, their starting guard, is questionable. Etienne can’t carry 30 touches every week. And Lawrence? He’s been inconsistent under pressure. The Cardinals’ defense isn’t pretty, but they’ve held teams to 4.3 yards per carry—and they’ve been better against the pass lately. They’ve also won three of their last four home games. And when the stakes are this high? Underdogs fight harder.What’s Next? The Ripple Effects
If the Jaguars win, they leap into the AFC playoff conversation. A loss? They’re back to needing help from others. For Arizona? A win keeps hope alive. A loss? The 2025 season becomes a draft lottery lottery. The props we’re seeing now will shape betting lines for Week 13. If Meyers explodes, his over 4.5 receptions might be +110 next week. If McBride keeps scoring, his anytime TD line could drop to +75. And if Lawrence struggles again? His passing yard under might become the most popular prop in Week 13.
Historical Context: When Injury-Driven Props Win Big
Remember Week 10 of 2023, when the San Francisco 49ers lost Deebo Samuel and George Kittle? The props shifted to the running backs—and the over/under on Elijah Mitchell’s yards went from 58.5 to 75.5. He hit 82. That’s what happens when injuries force teams to adapt. This week? Same story. Different teams. The same pattern: when stars fall, role players rise. And bettors who see it early win.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Trey McBride such a strong prop despite being a tight end?
With Marvin Harrison Jr. out, McBride is the Cardinals’ primary target, especially with Jacoby Brissett at QB. He’s caught a TD in five straight games and averages 7.2 targets per game. The Jaguars allow the 7th-most receiving yards to tight ends in the NFL, making this a perfect storm for McBride to dominate.
Is Jakobi Meyers a safe bet even though he’s new to Jacksonville?
Yes—because he’s not new to the role. Meyers has 50+ receptions in each of the last three seasons. With Brian Thomas Jr. out, he’s now the clear No. 1 receiver. The Cardinals’ secondary has allowed 12 receptions per game to wideouts, and Meyers already hit five catches in his second game with the Jaguars. The odds at -130 are too generous.
Why would anyone bet on the Cardinals as underdogs?
Because Jacksonville’s offense is inconsistent. Trevor Lawrence has struggled with accuracy under pressure, and their offensive line is thin. The Cardinals have won three of their last four home games, and a win here keeps their playoff hopes alive. Plus, the +3 line gives you a cushion—especially if the game stays close.
How do injuries to Travis Etienne’s blockers affect his prop?
They don’t hurt it as much as you’d think. Etienne is a versatile back who thrives in space, not just between the tackles. Even with Tuten questionable, the Jaguars will use screens and misdirection. He’s averaged 58 rushing yards per game in the last three—and the Cardinals have allowed 181 yards to Seattle in one game. Over 46.5 is a low bar.
Is the UNDER on Lawrence’s passing yards a risky play?
It’s only risky if you ignore context. Lawrence has gone over 215 yards just twice this season. With his top two receivers out, he’s forced into quick, short throws. The Cardinals’ pass rush is decent, and their secondary has improved. A 200-yard game is more likely than a 250-yard explosion.
What’s the most likely final score based on these props?
If Meyers hits 5+ catches, McBride scores, and Etienne clears 50 yards, expect a 24-20 or 27-23 outcome. The under on total points (46.5) is more likely than the over. The Cardinals won’t blow it out, but they’ll make it close enough to cover the spread.
